Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
12,164 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 2 of 417
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The market is pricing near-zero probability of a rate above 4% on July 29, despite some upside inflation risk, because the Fed's last signal in June suggested only potential future hikes, not an imminent move, and the current rate upper bound is already below 4%.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
The market is betting heavily that Bitcoin will strengthen relative to gold to reach a 30:1 ounce ratio, but the recent headlines show a tug-of-war between institutional Bitcoin adoption and a parallel push for gold tokenization, making the 78% odds seem driven more by momentum than by clear fundamental catalysts.
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The market shows a slight No lean, but the absence of recent news means the odds reflect a baseline uncertainty rather than a clear directional signal.
Yes ≈ 74% chance
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Yes ≈ 1% chance
Silver leads because it already surged past $77 in April on a dollar plunge, while Solana remains stuck near $68 despite growing tokenized stock volume — the gap is wide but silver's rally may be exhausted.
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The field is moderately concentrated with the 2030-2039 window leading, but the 26% share for 'after 2049 or never' indicates significant skepticism; the biggest recent shift is the 18% for 'before 2030', which has likely been buoyed by academic and institutional forecasts (SCMP, Mar 25; Hudson Institute, Mar 9) despite no clear catalyst for a surge.
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Yes ≈ 88% chance
The sharp 7-day rise in rate-hike odds reflects a market pricing in a later-in-2026 hike, not necessarily July, driven by oil-price inflation fears and Chair Warsh's hawkish stance, even as immediate July-hike expectations collapsed after his testimony.
Yes ≈ 72% chance
The race is a two-asset binary with odds slightly favoring silver (55%) despite SOL being only 2.2x away from the target while silver would need roughly a 4x move, suggesting the market is pricing in SOL's persistent stagnation—captured by the headline 'SOL Price Stuck at $68' (Bitget, Jun 25)—as a stronger headwind than silver's distance.
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