Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
242 markets · page 3 of 11
Yes ≈ 6% chance
The market is pricing a 42% chance of a Fed rate hike by October 2026, but the provided headlines contain no direct economic or monetary policy data—they cover unrelated topics like FCC meetings and foreign diplomacy, leaving the odds driven by general macroeconomic sentiment rather than specific Fed signals.
Yes ≈ 69% chance
Yes ≈ 97% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 78% chance
The market assigns a 61% probability to a Fed rate hike by September 2026, driven by global central bank tightening signals and geopolitical developments rather than any direct Fed communication.
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
The market is pricing in near-certainty that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate above 3.50% after the July 29 meeting, driven by persistent inflation concerns and a hawkish shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance