Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
243 markets · page 4 of 11
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 64% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 83% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 95% chance
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Despite the Fed's 2025 projection of just one 25 bps cut, the market now sees virtually no chance of a larger cut, as recent broker calls and geopolitical tensions have shifted expectations toward no change or even a hike.
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Despite hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Warsh and a hot jobs report, the market is overwhelmingly confident that the Fed will cut rates below 4% by end-2026, likely betting on an economic slowdown or recession that forces a policy reversal.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance