Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
3,312 markets · page 109 of 138
Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?
The market strongly expects a widely used LLM to adopt abstract synthetic data for pre-training by 2030, even though none of the recent educational headlines about LLMs directly address synthetic data, suggesting the belief is driven by longer-term industry trends rather than a specific breakthrough.
Yes ≈ 73% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it be able to align its future iterations with itself?
Yes ≈ 70% chance
Will an AI have >100 million Twitter followers this decade?
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Images assumed to be deepfakes/AI-generated unless proven otherwise before 2030
Yes ≈ 51% chance
Why will "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" resolve N/A?
8 outcomes
Will "AI pause: the case for ASAP" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?
Yes ≈ 37% chance
When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released.
9 outcomes
Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?
Despite rapid advances in interpretability methods (SHAP, LIME, deep learning for single-cell data), all recent published work targets benign scientific domains like medicine and physics, not frontier AI systems — explaining why the market heavily doubts a world-takeover plot will be revealed by 2028.
Yes ≈ 13% chance
when VR becomes popular (333 milly MAU accross all metaverses), what will people call it? (resolves to multiple)
6 outcomes
Which chess engine will be the strongest at the end of 2028?
8 outcomes
Will OpenAI have >$10 billion in revenue by 2030?
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?
Yes ≈ 53% chance
Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?
Yes ≈ 80% chance
Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
The market heavily favors No despite recent high-profile warnings from AI leaders, because those warnings are countered by a longer track record of human survival against existential threats and a lack of concrete near-term extinction mechanisms.
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?
The market assigns a low probability to AI causing administrative disempowerment before 2030, reflecting a belief that current AI capabilities and institutional safeguards will prevent a sudden loss of human control, despite ongoing progress.
Yes ≈ 32% chance
Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026
Yes ≈ 4% chance
How many years will pass from AI aceing Putnam to a Millenium Prize problem getting solved?
5 outcomes
AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2028?
Yes ≈ 82% chance
AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2030?
Yes ≈ 84% chance
Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?
Yes ≈ 76% chance