Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
67 markets · page 2 of 3
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 28, 2026?
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? — ↑ 1600
The market heavily doubts any AI model will hit a 1600 Chatbot Arena score by year-end, reflecting a belief that the leaderboard's scoring system is gamed and that progress is plateauing, not accelerating.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
The market is pricing a near-certain iPhone 18 launch in 2026, but the real story is a brewing tension between credible reports of a September timeline and a vocal minority arguing Apple may skip the fall release, possibly to debut a foldable 'iPhone Ultra' instead.
Yes ≈ 97% chance
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
7 outcomes
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
A flurry of July 2 reports from multiple outlets (9to5Mac, CNBC, Yahoo Tech) all point to an imminent foldable iPhone launch, pushing the market to 82% Yes — but the key risk is that Apple may only unveil the device in late 2026 without making it available for purchase before the Dec 31 deadline.
Yes ≈ 91% chance
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? — ↑ 1540
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? — ↑ 1650
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31? — ↑ 1700
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? — 1480+
Yes ≈ 87% chance
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? — 1490+
Yes ≈ 66% chance
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? — 1510+
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31?
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1000? — $1000+
Yes ≈ 98% chance
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1100? — $1100+
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200? — $1200+
Yes ≈ 69% chance
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300? — $1300+
Yes ≈ 27% chance