Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
75 markets · page 3 of 4
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑7.5k
Despite global outbreaks and local vaccination gaps, the U.S. has not seen a nationwide surge, but the recent 4-point uptick in Yes odds reflects growing concern that imported cases and low vaccination rates in pockets could combine to produce a historically large outbreak.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑12.5k
The market is heavily pricing against 12,500 U.S. measles cases in 2026 because the threshold is roughly ten times the record high of 1,282 cases in 2019, and while multiple U.S. outbreaks have been reported this year, none have approached the scale needed to push the total that high.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
The market is pricing a near-certainty that at least one month in 2026 will break its monthly global temperature record, driven by a series of unprecedented regional heat records already set this year, but the 95% odds may overstate confidence given that a full year of global data is not yet in and a single cooler month could break the streak.
Yes ≈ 95% chance
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑4k
Despite a handful of localized outbreaks and low vaccination rates in some communities, the U.S. is on track for far fewer than 4,000 measles cases in 2026, with only 171 confirmed through mid-July — a pace that would need to accelerate more than 20-fold in the remaining five months to hit the threshold.
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by June 30, 2027?
Yes ≈ 52% chance
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2027?
Yes ≈ 53% chance
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by October 31?
Yes ≈ 64% chance
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by December 31?
Yes ≈ 60% chance
Screwworm National Emergency declared by October 31?
Yes ≈ 45% chance
Screwworm National Emergency declared by December 31?
Yes ≈ 54% chance
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 85 mph? — ≥85 mph
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 105 mph? — ≥105 mph
Yes ≈ 9% chance
FDA approves Viatris' low-dose estrogen weekly patch?
Yes ≈ 69% chance
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑3.5k
Yes ≈ 66% chance
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 10000+
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?
Yes ≈ 27% chance