World prediction markets
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
1,842 markets · page 17 of 77
Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
1,842 markets · page 17 of 77
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 66% chance
Yes ≈ 75% chance
Yes ≈ 41% chance
Yes ≈ 49% chance
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 53% chance
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Yes ≈ 44% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance
The market heavily favors 'No' because the Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia is described as 'dragging' by Ukrainian military sources, and recent ISW assessments show no significant territorial gains near Prymorske, despite ongoing heavy shelling.
Yes ≈ 3% chance
The market sees zero chance of a permanent peace deal by end-2026 because active military conflict and contradictory diplomatic signals make a lasting ceasefire implausible within the timeframe.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
16 outcomes