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Open
Will Xi Jinping leave the office of General Secretary of the CCP by _____?
The field is highly concentrated on a post-2027 departure (44% combined for 2027 and 2028), reflecting minimal near-term risk, but the absence of any recent headline about succession or health keeps odds relatively open: the top three sum to only 54%, and the 2026 expiration (10%) is not zero. The biggest recent shift is likely the BBC's January 26 report on General Zhang Youxia's purge, which paradoxically reinforced Xi's immediate control (dampening near-end odds) while signaling elite instability that could eventually fracture consensus.
End of 202827¢
3 outcomes
$50 Vol 0pts