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25,593 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 9 of 417
Yes ≈ 84% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
The market is perfectly split because the question is a nonsensical mashup of Counter-Strike skin pricing, K-drama plots, and scientific papers, with no real-world event or data to anchor a resolution.
Yes ≈ 50% chance
Yes ≈ 98% chance
The market sees a 38% chance of solving all seven Millennium Prize problems by 2040, driven by AI's rapid progress in theorem proving but tempered by the extreme difficulty of problems like the Riemann Hypothesis and the track record of only one being solved in 25 years.
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Despite the absence of recent news, the market heavily discounts Reya reaching a $300M fully diluted valuation on day one, likely reflecting the difficulty of achieving such a high valuation in a crowded crypto launch environment.
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 43% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance
The market heavily discounts a final US-Iran nuclear deal by September 30, despite the June 14 framework, because the Trump administration has grown pessimistic and added a new condition linking the deal to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, making the two-month timeline extremely tight.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
The market heavily doubts Theo will exceed a $700M fully diluted valuation on its first day, but with no recent headlines, the extreme 93% No is merely a default against a high, speculative target, not a sign of specific negative news.
Yes ≈ 8% chance
The odds are heavily stacked before January 2027 at 78%, driven by a narrowing resolution criterion focusing on the majority of $50k+ claims rather than all customers, yet the field expects a payout timeline that stretches into 2026 despite early 2025 repayments starting.
4 outcomes
The 50/50 odds reflect deep uncertainty about whether the Glock-18 Ghost Protocol FN will sustain a price above $1200 by July 24, with traders likely divided over the impact of the recent Spy Tech Collection release on older skin demand.
Yes ≈ 50% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
The field is extremely concentrated with seven features at 100% probability, but the 87% on improved liquidity handling and the absence of recent Manifold-specific news suggest that the market's confidence may be based on assumptions rather than concrete evidence.
31 outcomes
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Dev1ce's move to 100 Thieves and their recent upset win over Falcons (Shane the Gamer, Jul 22) suggest potential, but his prior instability (Astralis replacement consideration, Jan 2) and strong competition from top-ranked players like sh1ro and Senzu keep the market perfectly balanced.
Yes ≈ 50% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance