World prediction markets
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
25,592 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 8 of 417
Will I ever fall sleep before midnight during PROMYS?
Yes ≈ 92% chance
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
25,592 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 8 of 417
Yes ≈ 92% chance
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Despite recent pushes in Nigeria and India, the market heavily favors 3 or fewer CBDCs globally by year-end, implying that large-scale launches beyond existing ones are unlikely within six months.
4 outcomes
The market heavily doubts RESMP.DEV will reach a $1B valuation by end of 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such outcomes for early-stage startups, but the 5% odds may still be generous given no public traction or funding milestones are evident.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The field is exceptionally flat and low, with no candidate above 5%, reflecting a near-consensus that no Russian annexation will occur in 2026 despite recent escalation in Georgia and Transnistria. The biggest recent shift is the cluster of headlines in May–June 2026 about Russian steps toward annexing Georgian territories and Transnistria, which kept odds on those candidates from falling to zero but did not break them above 5%.
7 outcomes
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 49% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
The field is extremely concentrated, with all three commanders above 90%, reflecting a near-consensus that Brazil's military leadership will remain stable through 2026 despite the political shock of Bolsonaro's imprisonment and Trump's call for military involvement against cartels.
3 outcomes
Yes ≈ 95% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
The field is highly concentrated, with the 1.43–1.47°C bin alone holding 50%—a near-majority—driven by persistent record-warm sea surface temperatures throughout early 2026, which anchor surface air temperature anomalies. The single biggest recent shift was the April 2026 Copernicus data showing surface air temperatures still elevated, reinforcing the front-runner.
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 55% chance
Yes ≈ 59% chance