US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
7 markets · 1mo
The markets heavily discount a US-Iran nuclear deal through mid-2026, with odds for every deadline before December 31 below 50% and most near 0%, reflecting deep skepticism that the two sides can bridge core disagreements on enrichment and sanctions relief before the US presidential election cycle intensifies.
📊 Base rate: Since the 2015 JCPOA was implemented, no comprehensive follow-up deal has been reached despite multiple negotiation rounds, giving a historical base rate of roughly 0% per year for a final nuclear agreement between the US and Iran.
What's driving it
- • Iran's continued enrichment of uranium to 60% purity, as reported by the IAEA, has hardened US and European positions, making a quick deal less likely (Reuters, Jun 18).
- • The US administration's focus on domestic priorities and the approaching 2028 election reduces political bandwidth for a contentious diplomatic push (no clear catalyst recently).
- • Iran's demand for verifiable removal of all post-2018 sanctions, including those imposed by the Trump administration, remains a sticking point that US negotiators have not conceded (Reuters, Jun 18).
The bullish case
- • Both sides have publicly stated a willingness to negotiate, and indirect talks via Oman have continued, keeping a diplomatic channel open for a potential breakthrough.
- • A deal before year-end could be framed as a legacy achievement for the Biden administration, providing a political incentive to push through remaining obstacles.
- • Iran's economic strain from sanctions may eventually force flexibility on enrichment limits, as oil exports remain constrained and inflation persists.
The bearish case
- • Iran's nuclear progress has reduced the time needed to produce weapons-grade material, raising the threshold for any deal that the US and allies would accept (Reuters, Jun 18).
- • Hardliners in both Tehran and Washington oppose concessions, and the US Congress could block any agreement that does not fully dismantle Iran's enrichment program.
- • The odds for all deadlines before December 31 are below 50%, with most near 0%, indicating market consensus that no deal will be finalized in 2026.
What to watch
- • IAEA Board of Governors meeting in September 2026: a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council would likely push odds lower, while a cooperative report could boost them.
- • US midterm election results in November 2026: a shift in congressional control could alter the political feasibility of a deal, with a Democratic majority potentially raising odds.
- • Any public announcement of direct US-Iran talks or a framework agreement before December 31 would sharply increase odds for the year-end deadline.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
The market is pricing a 0% chance of a final US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31, 2026, because the interim agreement signed on June 14 includes a 60-day negotiation window that extends past the deadline, and recent headlines show the Trump administration is pessimistic and adding new conditions like Saudi Arabia's inclusion in the Abraham Accords.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
Yes ≈ 2% chance
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
Despite a tenuous 60-day negotiation window opened in June, a cascade of US sanctions, asset freezes, and a military strike on a US-linked supply center have shattered the preliminary agreement, making a final nuclear deal by August 18 virtually impossible.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
The market heavily discounts a final nuclear deal by August 31, 2026, despite a signed interim agreement in June, because the Trump administration has introduced a new condition—Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords—and is publicly pessimistic about clinching a deal.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
The market heavily discounts a final US-Iran nuclear deal by September 30, despite the June 14 framework, because the Trump administration has grown pessimistic and added a new condition linking the deal to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, making the two-month timeline extremely tight.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
While the June 14 framework agreement gave a formal negotiating path, the odds remain low because both sides are publicly conditioning progress on stark ultimatums—Iran demands an end to threats, Trump warns of military action—making a final deal by year-end a long shot despite the slight upward drift.
Yes ≈ 31% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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