Will Party X (X) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
🗂 Part of event: Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Fed Decision in July?
Despite oil surging near $100 and resurfacing inflation fears, the market is overwhelmingly pricing in no rate change at the July FOMC meeting, suggesting traders see the Fed as willing to look through energy-driven price pressures for now.
5 outcomes
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Despite ongoing regional tensions, the US is actively de-escalating, with President Trump holding off on strikes against Iran for the first time in two weeks, causing invasion odds to drop sharply.
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
The market sees only a 16% chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, reflecting a consensus that the current geopolitical disruptions—including US-Iran tensions and a recent tanker seizure—will persist beyond that deadline, despite a slight uptick in odds over the past week.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is highly concentrated at the top, with Kennedy and Vance combining for 92% of the odds, but the real story is Kennedy's surge to 49%—a position that lacks any clear recent headline catalyst, as the provided headlines focus on Democratic odds, Loomer's Ukraine meeting, and a Buttigieg-Vance poll, not Kennedy.
128 outcomes
Elon Musk # tweets July 21 - July 28, 2026?
The field is moderately concentrated with the top three buckets capturing 67% of probability, but the 24-hour +9-point surge toward the leading range (280-299) suggests a specific catalyst—likely Musk's recent legal setback (Reuters, Jul 6) or a burst of posting activity—rather than a structural shift in his habits.
26 outcomes
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
The market is pricing a near-certain ceasefire continuation, but the real story is that this high confidence rests on a fragile, secret 10-day truce proposal submitted by Iran under heavy US military pressure, not on a durable bilateral agreement.
Yes ≈ 99% chance