Will Person X be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?
🗂 Part of event: TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Fed Decision in July?
Despite oil surging near $100 and resurfacing inflation fears, the market is overwhelmingly pricing in no rate change at the July FOMC meeting, suggesting traders see the Fed as willing to look through energy-driven price pressures for now.
5 outcomes
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Despite ongoing regional tensions, the US is actively de-escalating, with President Trump holding off on strikes against Iran for the first time in two weeks, causing invasion odds to drop sharply.
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
The market sees only a 16% chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, reflecting a consensus that the current geopolitical disruptions—including US-Iran tensions and a recent tanker seizure—will persist beyond that deadline, despite a slight uptick in odds over the past week.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is highly concentrated at the top, with Kennedy and Vance combining for 92% of the odds, but the real story is Kennedy's surge to 49%—a position that lacks any clear recent headline catalyst, as the provided headlines focus on Democratic odds, Loomer's Ukraine meeting, and a Buttigieg-Vance poll, not Kennedy.
128 outcomes
Elon Musk # tweets July 21 - July 28, 2026?
The field is moderately concentrated with the top three buckets capturing 67% of probability, but the 24-hour +9-point surge toward the leading range (280-299) suggests a specific catalyst—likely Musk's recent legal setback (Reuters, Jul 6) or a burst of posting activity—rather than a structural shift in his habits.
26 outcomes
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
The market is pricing a near-certain ceasefire continuation, but the real story is that this high confidence rests on a fragile, secret 10-day truce proposal submitted by Iran under heavy US military pressure, not on a durable bilateral agreement.
Yes ≈ 99% chance