Crypto prediction markets

✨ The market is heavily betting against a Base token launch by September 2026 because the recent B20 token standard launch is explicitly for stablecoins and RWAs, not a native Base token—the headlines confirm this distinction, making a 'Yes' resolution extremely unlikely.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

✨ Despite the high 84% odds, the market lacks any direct confirmation from Extended itself about a token launch, and the recent headlines cited are mostly about other projects extending token unlocks or launching tokens, not about Extended.

Yes ≈ 78% chance

✨ Despite a flurry of May 2026 headlines about Circle's Arc token presale and blockchain launch, the market heavily doubts a governance token will be publicly tradable by September 30, likely because the presale was private and the token's public transferability remains unconfirmed.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ Circle's Arc token presale and blockchain launch have already happened, but the market hinges on whether the token becomes publicly transferable and tradable by year-end, not just announced or pre-sold.

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

✨ The market is pricing a 61% chance that Extended launches a tradable governance token by September 30, 2026, but the recent headlines show no direct news about Extended—only general crypto token events like Worldcoin's unlock extension and Remittix's airdrop—meaning the odds are driven by broader market sentiment rather than project-specific catalysts.

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Yes ≈ 62% chance

✨ Despite growing ecosystem activity like YGG and Cryptoys integrations, Abstract has shown no concrete steps toward launching a tradable token, making the 84% No odds reflect a market that sees token issuance as unlikely within the timeframe.

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ Base's token launch odds remain low at 12% despite a thriving on-chain ecosystem, as the team's own technical delays and lack of official commitment outweigh the activity of third-party token platforms.

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Yes ≈ 49% chance

✨ OpenSea's token launch odds remain low at 25% after a formal delay in March 2026, with no new date set, and the company's recent pivot toward perpetuals via Hyperliquid suggests a strategic shift away from a near-term token.

Yes ≈ 20% chance

✨ Tread's token launch is priced at 60% despite no recent project-specific news, meaning the odds are driven by general crypto token launch trends and absence of negative signals rather than concrete developments.

Yes ≈ 54% chance

✨ Hibachi's token launch odds are low because the project has not announced a token or airdrop, and the broader perp DEX sector is crowded with established competitors, but the market remains speculative as Hibachi could still surprise with a late-year launch.

Yes ≈ 18% chance

✨ Despite being listed among projects to watch, Pacifica has produced no token launch announcement or timeline, and the absence of recent concrete updates keeps the probability very low.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 81% chance

✨ Ostium's token launch is a coin flip, reflecting uncertainty over whether the project will move from a long-standing 'anti-manipulation' ethos (reported Feb 2026) and $20M funding (Dec 2025) to an actual tradable token by year-end, with no confirmed date or testnet yet.

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Yes ≈ 63% chance

✨ The market is pricing a 65% chance of a Base token launch by 2027, but the recent B20 standard launch is for stablecoins and RWAs, not a native token—the odds may be overstating the likelihood given Base's repeated denials and the technical delays seen in July.

Yes ≈ 66% chance