Crypto prediction markets

✨ The market is effectively resolved as Bitcoin has traded well above $60,000 for several days, with headlines showing prices above $66,000 as of July 21 and bullish technical patterns emerging (CoinDesk, Jul 21; Yahoo Finance, Jul 25). The 100% Yes odds reflect that the noon ET close on July 26 is virtually certain to exceed the threshold.

Yes ≈ 100% chance

Yes ≈ 100% chance

✨ Despite no recent headlines, Bitcoin's odds of being above $64k surged 25 points in 24 hours, reflecting strong short-term bullish conviction ahead of today's noon ET resolution.

Yes ≈ 78% chance

✨ Despite a sharp geopolitical selloff that briefly pushed Bitcoin below $73,000, the 13% 'Yes' probability for a dip to $60,000 in July reflects traders' belief that the Middle East shock was not severe enough to trigger an additional ~$13,000 drop in the remaining five days of the month.

Yes ≈ 14% chance

✨ The odds for Bitcoin closing higher on July 26 surged 21 points in 24 hours to 71%, but no specific news explains the move, suggesting the shift may be driven by technical trading or a large market participant positioning.

Yes ≈ 64% chance

✨ With only six days left in July and Bitcoin trading well below $70,000, the market assigns a 94% probability that it will not reach the target, despite some positive headlines on ETF inflows and institutional adoption.

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ With only five days left in July and Bitcoin struggling to sustain $70K, the market sees a $80K spike as virtually impossible, despite bullish long-term signals like ETF inflows and miner contract value.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The market has swung wildly in the past week, dropping 20 points then recovering 5, as a long-term bullish narrative from Japan's ETF prospects and miner contract values clashes with short-term uncertainty over Bitcoin's internal governance disputes and the sheer difficulty of hitting $67,500 within the remaining days of July.

Yes ≈ 26% chance

✨ The odds of a dip to $62.5K are dropping sharply as Bitcoin shows repeated rejection at key levels and resistance to breaking below $64K, despite weak spot demand and a Morgan Stanley 'buy the dip' signal.

Yes ≈ 48% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The market sees a 96% chance Bitcoin avoids a 44%+ crash to $57,500 in July, but the real story is that recent dips to $64K and $65.5K have been met with institutional buying and technical rejection at key levels, making a catastrophic drop unlikely within the remaining six days.

Yes ≈ 4% chance

✨ The market is essentially a coin flip, but the recent drift toward 'Yes' reflects a pattern of technical rejections and weakening spot demand, even as institutional players like Morgan Stanley buy the dip—suggesting a tug-of-war between short-term bearish signals and long-term accumulation.

Yes ≈ 51% chance

✨ The market is pricing a 0% chance of Bitcoin hitting $50,000 in July because the current price is around $64,000 and the month is nearly over, making a 22% drop in a few days virtually impossible without a catastrophic event.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ Despite a flurry of bullish headlines about Japan's potential Bitcoin ETFs and miner contract values, the market sees virtually no chance of Bitcoin hitting $72,500 in the remaining five days of July, reflecting the extreme difficulty of a 10%+ rally in such a short window.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ The sharp drop in Yes odds over the past week reflects fading momentum for a dip below $50k, as Bitcoin has surged past $70k and the shallowest 50% dip on record suggests diminished downside risk.

Yes ≈ 34% chance

✨ The market is pricing a near-zero chance of Bitcoin hitting $75,000 in July, reflecting that with only six days left in the month, the price would need an unprecedented surge from current levels—far beyond what recent headlines about long-term adoption or miner contracts can plausibly deliver in such a short window.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

✨ Despite a 7-point drop in Yes odds to near-zero, the market is pricing in a near-impossible chance of Bitcoin hitting $52,500 by month-end, even as recent dips to $64K and $65.5K show volatility but remain far above the target.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ Despite bearish headlines citing a rejection at $67,000 and ETF outflows, the market is overwhelmingly concentrated in the 64,000–66,000 range, implying traders expect the price to hold near current levels rather than break sharply lower.

✨ Despite Bitcoin's recent surge past $70k and a record shallow dip, the 17% Yes odds reflect a market that sees a 50% crash as possible but unlikely, with the +2pt movement suggesting growing concern from regulatory headwinds.

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance