Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
12,205 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 11 of 417
Yes ≈ 82% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 92% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Despite a headline showing 105 million Americans not working, the market is confident (11% Yes) that no two consecutive quarters of negative GDP have occurred yet in 2025-2026, implying the labor market weakness hasn't translated into a technical recession.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of WTI hitting $65 in July 2026 because oil has already recovered from a brief sub-$70 dip in late June and is now being pushed higher by escalating Iran conflict and rising mortgage rates, which signal inflationary pressure rather than demand destruction.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 73% chance
Yes ≈ 97% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance