Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
12,180 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 9 of 417
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 41% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 81% chance
The S&P 500 hitting 7800 by year-end 2026 is seen as plausible (58% odds) after a 3-point jump in 24 hours, driven by resurgent tech and semiconductor optimism, but the market is already near record highs and risks around valuation and economic headwinds remain.
Yes ≈ 57% chance
Yes ≈ 55% chance
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of WTI hitting $65 in July 2026 because oil has already recovered from a brief sub-$70 dip in late June and is now being pushed higher by escalating Iran conflict and rising mortgage rates, which signal inflationary pressure rather than demand destruction.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 90% chance
Yes ≈ 40% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 23% chance
30 outcomes
Yes ≈ 17% chance