Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
12,157 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 6 of 417
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 94% chance
The market heavily favors 'No' because the all-time high of $147.27 is nearly double current prices, and while recent geopolitical tensions have pushed oil up 4%, they haven't created a sustained rally strong enough to close that gap by September 30.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
The market is pricing a near-certain listing based on concrete scheduling, but the skeptical 'won't touch it' headline suggests the odds reflect process optimism rather than fundamental belief in the IPO's long-term value.
Yes ≈ 75% chance
Yes ≈ 68% chance
28 outcomes
Yes ≈ 57% chance
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 80% chance
The market sees a 2% chance of the S&P 500 doubling in 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of such an extreme annual gain and the absence of any recent news suggesting a dramatic rally.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 67% chance
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Yes ≈ 76% chance
3 outcomes