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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 11 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3915 US elections 2801 Foreign politics 437 Political Leader Tenure 356 Future US Presidents 228 US Political Timelines 204 Leader Tenure Predictions 118 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 75 Person of the Year Awards 14 Sports & Political Leadership 10

424 markets · page 11 of 18

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the next President of the USA (elected in 2024) die before the end of their term in office.

Yes16¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…910111213…18Next ›

Open

Will Gianni Infantino be President of FIFA for his full elected term?

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts8mo

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Open

When will Putin cease to be the President of Russia?

Other16¢

13 outcomes

Ɱ15.7K Vol▲ 0pts6y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will I ever run for president of the USA

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the US President of the 2024-2028 term die while being the President?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ211 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Peter Thiel ever be elected President?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will AOC be elected President in 2032?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts6y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance become President of the US before November 1, 2028?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ35.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be voted President of the United States by the Electoral College in 2028?

Other30¢

13 outcomes

Ɱ15.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will Ron DeSantis be elected President in 2028?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ5.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a self-identifying atheist be elected president of the United States by 2040?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump be impeached over Epstein files and will JD Vance assume the role?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ5.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk be as a candidate for the President of United States in any state in the 2028 election?

The 4% odds reflect near-certain expectation that Elon Musk will not be a presidential candidate in 2028, driven primarily by his constitutional ineligibility as a naturalized citizen and recent controversies that undermine any political viability.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ434 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will Lauren Boebert be elected President in 2028?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ463 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will Hillary Clinton be elected President in 2028?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Ron Desantis ever be president of the United States?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will Abdel Fattah Al Sisi be the president of Egypt on January 1, 2032?

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Ɱ231 Vol▲ 0pts5y

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Open

Will any US President be removed from office via impeachment and conviction before 2100?

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ474 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts9mo

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Open

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ34.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be the President of the United States of America at some point in their life?

The field is highly concentrated at the top, with Vance, Newsom, and Shapiro collectively commanding 85% of the probability, but the recent US-Iran deal (NBC News, Jun 18) has shifted focus to foreign policy, potentially boosting candidates with national security credentials while sidelining others.

J. D. Vance44¢

111 outcomes

Ɱ134K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will Tiger Woods ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

If Trump is elected in 2024, will he be impeached again?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ7.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?

The 4% probability of Trump's impeachment in 2026 hinges almost entirely on whether Democrats retake the House, as Republican control precludes any formal proceedings—making the real story the midterm election odds and Democratic leadership's stated reluctance to pursue impeachment.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ64.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo