Politics prediction markets
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
33 markets · page 1 of 2
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
33 markets · page 1 of 2
71 outcomes
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 15% chance
82 outcomes
The field is highly fragmented with 'Other' at 37%, indicating no dominant figure has emerged; the biggest recent shift is Zohran Mamdani rising to 14% after leading an early TIME poll (Hindustan Times, Jul 25).
20 outcomes
Yes ≈ 31% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
The market heavily discounts a Trump Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, but the real story is the emergence of a parallel FIFA Peace Prize created specifically for him, which has triggered ethics complaints and mockery, not serious Nobel consideration.
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance