Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
422 markets · page 1 of 18
Yes ≈ 9% chance
The field is extremely concentrated, with Lula at 63% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 23%, but the biggest recent shift is Flavio Bolsonaro's formal launch as the Liberal Party candidate (Anadolu Ajansı, Jul 26), which consolidated his second-place position and pushed his odds up from lower levels, while Jair Bolsonaro's 1% shows his political influence has faded.
10 outcomes
Yes ≈ 12% chance
The field is unusually fragmented for this stage, with no candidate above 20% and the top three combining for less than half the probability, reflecting a race where the eventual nominee is far from settled and a late entrant or a surprise primary winner could still reshape the contest.
100 outcomes
3 outcomes
Despite a mounting security controversy over Trump's Qatari-gifted Air Force One and aggressive tariff moves, the market sees virtually zero chance of his removal within the next ten days, with the odds anchored by the extreme short timeline and lack of any formal removal proceedings.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 94% chance
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 65% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance