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Politics prediction markets & live odds | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3880 US elections 2761 Foreign politics 426 Political Leader Tenure 354 Future US Presidents 225 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 75 Person of the Year Awards 13 Sports & Political Leadership 10

6,133 markets · page 1 of 256

InsightX

Open

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 316¢

2 outcomes

$63.6M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

123…256Next ›

Despite Trump's recent escalation rhetoric, the probability of a full-scale invasion has actually declined in the past week, suggesting the market views the threats as posturing rather than imminent action, especially given the lack of overnight strikes and a new maritime incident with Ukraine diverting attention.

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$47.8M Vol▼ 5pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Abdul El-Sayed66¢

9 outcomes

$3.7M Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Limitless🔭 4 venues

Open

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Trump's renewed demands for Greenland at the July 2026 NATO summit have not moved the market significantly, as the 6% Yes price reflects deep skepticism that any acquisition can occur before 2027 given Denmark's firm resistance and the lack of a viable legal or diplomatic pathway.

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$25.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

Which party will control the House after the midterm elections?

Democratic Party82¢

2 outcomes

£19.4K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?

The market heavily discounts a Trump 2028 announcement despite his continued political activity, reflecting his age, legal risks, and the party's gradual shift toward newer contenders.

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ12.3K Vol▲ 9pts1y

XO Market🔭 2 venues

Open

Will Donald Trump Win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$5.1K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Futuur

Open

California governor election winner

Xavier Becerra84¢

4 outcomes

$2.1K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Myriad

Open

Trump’s approval ratings

Despite disapproval leading by a narrow 4-point margin, the recent crash in male approval to a record low signals a structural weakness, yet a slight rebound in one poll from the same day shows high volatility tied to the escalating Iran conflict.

Disapprove52¢

2 outcomes

888K Vol▲ 0pts—

InsightX🔭 4 venues

Open

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$35.1M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot54¢

28 outcomes

$29.5M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump say "TikTok" before Jul 27, 2026?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$110K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Limitless

Open

Trump out as President before 2027?

The market sees President Trump's removal as very unlikely despite imminent midterm election turmoil, because his firing of election commissioners (Reuters, Jul 10) raises fears of 'chaos' (The Guardian) but not of his own removal. The real story is that the market treats pre-2027 removal as nearly impossible unless a concrete health, legal, or coup scenario emerges, which headlines so far don't support.

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

Donald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

£11.2K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play⚡ Moving fast

Open

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

The 21% bet on a third-term attempt rests on Trump's documented pattern of challenging term limits, yet the 79% No reflects bipartisan legal consensus that the 22nd Amendment creates an almost insurmountable bar and the absence of any concrete campaign infrastructure for 2028.

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ193K Vol▲ 1pts2y

Futuur

Open

Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?

Tulsi Gabbard86¢

10 outcomes

$1.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

InsightX

Open

Trump out as President before 2027?

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$10.3M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro82¢

57 outcomes

$94.3M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Darline Graham73¢

11 outcomes

$2.4M Vol▲ 0pts1y

Smarkets

Open

Trump Exit Date — Trump To Serve Second Term In Full

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

£10.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

The race to succeed Nancy Pelosi is a two-person contest between Scott Wiener (69%) and Connie Chan (30%), with no recent headlines directly affecting the race. The field is highly concentrated, and the biggest recent shift is the solidification of Wiener's lead, though no headline explains this move.

Scott Wiener69¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ1.4M Vol▲ 0pts2y

Futuur

Open

Elected Senators for Ceará in 2026

Capitão Wagner78¢

5 outcomes

$816 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

InsightX

Open

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party86¢

2 outcomes

$8.8M Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Trump out as President by July 31?

Despite a mounting security controversy over Trump's Qatari-gifted Air Force One and aggressive tariff moves, the market sees virtually zero chance of his removal within the next ten days, with the odds anchored by the extreme short timeline and lack of any formal removal proceedings.

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$2.4M Vol5d