Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
1,060 markets · page 11 of 45
The market strongly doubts a 2026 rescheduling, as top DOJ officials avoid committing and financial commentators predict the bet will 'go very wrong,' but the odds may undercount the momentum from ongoing administrative reviews.
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 27% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Bessent's tenure looks secure at 86% No, but a flurry of negative press around his policy slippage and emotional outbursts has nudged Yes up 1 point, suggesting the market sees a small but non-trivial chance he cracks under pressure.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
RFK Jr. is entrenching his position through policy wins, but the market prices in a 26% departure chance, suggesting skepticism about the sustainability of his controversial agenda.
Yes ≈ 26% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
The market heavily discounts a purchase despite Trump's revived public demands in July 2026, because Denmark has firmly said it will not sell and has vowed to defend the territory, making a voluntary transaction nearly impossible within the timeline.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Pete Hegseth faces an unprecedented wave of legal and political fire—judicial orders, officer firings, and a budget crisis—yet the market sees only a 22% chance he leaves before 2027, implying that barring a smoking gun or a clear removal mechanism, he is likely to weather the storm.
Yes ≈ 22% chance