Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
1,060 markets · page 12 of 45
Yes ≈ 14% chance
The market heavily discounts a purchase despite Trump's revived public demands in July 2026, because Denmark has firmly said it will not sell and has vowed to defend the territory, making a voluntary transaction nearly impossible within the timeline.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 69% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 31% chance
Despite the 83% No odds, the real story is that Díaz-Canel faces mounting external pressure from the EU and US, but internal party machinery shows no sign of a leadership change, making a departure before 2027 unlikely without a major crisis.
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
RFK Jr. is entrenching his position through policy wins, but the market prices in a 26% departure chance, suggesting skepticism about the sustainability of his controversial agenda.
Yes ≈ 26% chance