Politics prediction markets
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
1,062 markets · page 17 of 45
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
1,062 markets · page 17 of 45
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
The 25% Yes odds reflect a press secretary who remains publicly loyal to Trump but faces a uniquely volatile boss who has publicly roasted her and engaged in tense exchanges, making her tenure fragile despite no formal departure signals.
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Yes ≈ 70% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Despite multiple headlines in early 2026 about tariff reductions and trade deals with Taiwan, the market sees only a 14% chance that a formal free trade agreement becomes U.S. law by year-end 2026, likely because the reported actions are executive measures or preliminary pacts that fall short of the resolution's requirement for a legally enacted FTA.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance