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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 21 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3937 US elections 2828 Foreign politics 447 Political Leader Tenure 362 Future US Presidents 231 US Political Timelines 204 Leader Tenure Predictions 118 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 77 Person of the Year Awards 14 Sports & Political Leadership 10

732 markets · page 21 of 31

Polymarket

Open

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

Yes86¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

$1.8K Vol▼ 1pts9mo

Kalshi

Open

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Will Pope Leo XIV visit Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

$3.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a UK General Election held using an alternative voting system before 2030?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will Alberta join the US?

Despite fringe political chatter and a low-probability market, Alberta joining the US remains a near-impossible scenario given the lack of any official bilateral process, constitutional barriers, and the absence of serious political momentum on either side of the border.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$2.2M Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Pope Leo XIV visit Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$25.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2050?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ829 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$221K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Who will recognize Palestine? — Germany

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$6.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? — December 31, 2026

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$21.7K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Empire of Mexico restored to the House of Iturbide (pretender Maximilian von Götzen-Iturbide) before 3rd March 2034.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ493 Vol▲ 0pts7y

Kalshi

Open

Who will recognize Palestine? — Japan

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$14.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Spain snap election called in 2026?

Yes20¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$32.7K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ259 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the Secretary of State visit Mexico before 2027?

The market is essentially a coin flip because the 2025 Rubio visit appears excluded from the resolution window, leaving the current Secretary of State's travel plans uncertain amid competing signals of security cooperation and diplomatic friction.

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$1.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$30.2K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a UK General Election in 2027?

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Prime Minister of Serbia after the next election?

Aleksandar Vučić75¢

6 outcomes

$432 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$8K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Labour Party win the next UK general election?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$4.1K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will France announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$5.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ32.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes74¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

$3.1K Vol▲ 1pts8mo

Kalshi

Open

Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo83¢

3 outcomes

$1.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y