Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
713 markets · page 25 of 30
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Yes ≈ 29% chance
Nathalie Arthaud, a perennial candidate for the far-left Lutte Ouvrière, is heavily favored to appear on the 2027 ballot, but the real story is whether her party's recent alliance with the leftist New Popular Front might lead it to forego an independent candidacy—a risk the market is currently pricing as very low.
Yes ≈ 83% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
The market sees Karim Bouamrane as a near-certain loser for ballot access, not because he failed to announce—he did (Bloomberg, Jun 8)—but because his niche 'Master Poulet' local fame (France 24, Apr 28) has not translated into the national coalition or 500-sponsor threshold needed to reach the Constitutional Council's list.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Manuel Valls, a former French PM now serving as overseas territories minister, has shown no intention of running for president; the 96% odds against him reflect the absence of a campaign, party backing, or any public declaration, making a last-minute bid extremely unlikely.
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Teddy Riner remains a full-time judo competitor with no political activity, making his 2027 presidential bid a near-impossible long shot despite his celebrity status in France.
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Despite his reputation as a legal firebrand for pan-Africanist causes, Juan Branco appears to lack the domestic political base, party machinery, and signature sponsors required to pass France's stringent candidate-filtering process; recent headlines center on his foreign disputes and bitterness, not on building a campaign in France.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
The market sees de Villiers as a fringe figure with near-zero chance of making the ballot, despite a small cultural-media footprint among conservative Catholics. The real story is whether his long-shot bid ever becomes credible enough to warrant even 9%, or whether the 92% holds all the way to 2027.
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 84% chance
Yes ≈ 88% chance