Politics prediction markets
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
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Will Javier Milei leave President of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?
Milei's radical proposal to adopt a U.S.-style government shutdown mechanism signals a strategy of brinkmanship that could paradoxically strengthen his hold on power by framing fiscal crisis as structural reform, while IMF engagement provides a stability buffer. The 4% Yes odds reflect a market that sees institutional gridlock as less threatening to his tenure than his own policy volatility.
Yes7¢
No93¢
Yes ≈ 7% chance
$5K Vol 0pts