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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3809 US elections 2676 Foreign politics 402 Political Leader Tenure 338 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

251 markets · page 4 of 11

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Pickleball be an official Olympic event before the first female president of the United States ?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

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Will JD Vance announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027? — Before Oct 1, 2027

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

$1 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a vice president with the cabinet lead a coup against the president of the United States in the 21st century?

The 23% probability reflects a market that sees a US vice president-led coup as extremely unlikely, given constitutional safeguards and the absence of any historical precedent, but the 2025 IBA analysis of the 25th Amendment and foreign coup examples keep the possibility alive in a politically polarized era.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ76 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the President of the United States visit Greenland before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Kamala Harris be US President (for any length of time) before 2030?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ329 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the President of the United States visit Greenland before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

$688 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a third party US president before 2050.

Tucker Carlson's July 2026 third-party push (Time, Jul 3) provides the most concrete recent catalyst for a potential third-party president, but the 23% Yes odds reflect the massive historical barrier: zero third-party wins in over 200 years.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the President of the United States visit Greenland before Jan 20, 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$20 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?

The market is nearly split on whether Trump will be ranked the worst president by CSPAN, but the real story is that recent polls and media rankings already label him the worst ever, yet CSPAN's academic survey may be more resistant to recency bias and partisan framing.

Yes48¢

No52¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

Ɱ19K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sitting US president visit El Salvador through 2029?

Despite Trump's controversial CECOT deal with Bukele, the market assigns only a 35% chance that any sitting US president visits El Salvador by 2029, reflecting legal hurdles and the lack of a precedent for such a visit.

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ231 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance be impeached and removed during Trump's second term?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ354 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Millennial become president of the United States?

Yes86¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

Ɱ295 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a technocrat be elected US president by 2040?

The market sees a non-trivial chance of a technocrat winning the US presidency by 2040, driven by a global wave of technocratic appointments (Romania, Benin, Nigeria) but tempered by the absence of any US-specific catalyst or historical precedent for such a figure in the White House.

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ54 Vol▲ 0pts13y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance become President during Trump’s second term?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ11K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there ever be a Generation X president of the US?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ248 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

The market is heavily betting against Trump returning as president by 2033, but the story is not about his current unpopularity; it is about the structural barrier of the 22nd Amendment, which likely bars a third-term run unless a legal exception emerges, and the recent headlines show Trump's rhetoric and political standing are deteriorating, reinforcing the long-shot status.

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts6y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump resign as US President during his second term?

At 2% Yes, the market sees virtually no chance Trump resigns, despite a second term marked by record turnover and aggressive purges of election officials — actions that signal a fight, not a walkaway.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ19.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there ever be a Gen X US President?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ952 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ16.9K Vol▲ 0pts6y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance become President before January 20, 2029?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Jeff Jackson become President of the United States?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Kamala Harris be president of the United States before the end of January 2029?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ12K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2024, 2028, or 2032 presidential elections?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts6y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a US President (or Presidential Task Force) confirm an extraterrestrial or non-human intelligence by 2030?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts4y