Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
6,061 markets · page 4 of 253
The 81% odds for Democrats to hold the House reflect a structural advantage from redistricting and suburban backlash, but the recent primary upset in Arizona where an outsider beat the party's chosen candidate signals internal fractures that could complicate turnout and messaging.
Yes ≈ 81% chance
The field is effectively a two-person race with 98% of the probability concentrated on Peltola and Sullivan, but the single biggest recent shift is the DOJ investigation into a candidate sharing Sullivan's name, which injects uncertainty into the Republican side (ABC News, Jul 4).
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 65% chance
The field is heavily concentrated on the Democratic side at 74%, but the Republican side remains fragmented with only 14%, and the recent 'total endorsement' of John James by Trump (Bridge Michigan, Jun 23) has not yet consolidated GOP support enough to close the gap, while bipartisan election-law changes (Votebeat, Jun 23) and Whitmer's signed bills (WZZM13, Jun 22) could shift turnout dynamics.
2 outcomes
20 outcomes
Trump's renewed demand for Greenland at the NATO summit has pushed odds to 64%, but the market is pricing in a low-probability event given Denmark's firm opposition and the lack of a clear legal or political mechanism for acquisition.
Yes ≈ 64% chance
The market's field is artificially distorted by two resolved contracts (Chavez-DeRemer, Gabbard) at 100%, making the top three sum 231%; the real contest among remaining officials is thin, with RFK Jr. at 31% as the only active double-digit contender despite no recent news of his imminent departure.
22 outcomes
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
The field is moderately concentrated with the top three (Thomas, Roberts, Kavanaugh) capturing 61%, but the single biggest recent shift is the surge in Alito speculation to 10% driven by Federal News Network's piece on retirement odds.
9 outcomes
Democrats' last-minute candidate swap in Maine, replacing scandal-plagued Graham Platner with ex-Republican Troy Jackson, has stabilized a must-win seat but leaves the party's Senate majority hopes hinging on a risky experiment in cross-party appeal.
Yes ≈ 51% chance
2 outcomes
The 15% Yes odds reflect a deeply unfavorable environment for Republicans, with party infighting and a likely D+11 national environment that historically would cost them the majority, though redistricting lawsuits and legislative leverage points keep a narrow path alive.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 98% chance
The field is effectively a two-way race with the Democrat heavily favored at 83%, but nearly all recent headlines focus on South Carolina—not North Carolina—leaving the state's race oddly under-discussed and any shift hypothesis ungrounded in the provided data.
2 outcomes
The field is effectively a two-person contest between Darline Graham Nordone (73%) and Congressman Russell Fry (7%), with Nordone's entry as Lindsey Graham's sister and her quick filing for the full term creating a huge lead; the biggest recent shift is Nordone's surge from zero to dominant after entering the race on July 24 (Newsweek, Jul 25).
2 outcomes
The Texas Senate race has tightened dramatically, with Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico now effectively tied, driven by Paxton's fundraising surge and Talarico's pivot to attacking Paxton's scandals.
2 outcomes
Despite Trump's announced three-day ceasefire in May 2026, the market sees only a 15% chance of a durable ceasefire before the midterms, reflecting skepticism that temporary pauses will translate into a lasting agreement.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
The field is binary and fully concentrated, with the market swinging from 0% to 100% on July 10-12, likely reflecting a sudden consensus that a public insult is imminent, though no headline from that exact window explains the flip.
2 outcomes