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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 5 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3809 US elections 2676 Foreign politics 402 Political Leader Tenure 338 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

690 markets · page 5 of 29

Kalshi

Open

Will anyone win outright in the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$10.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Futuur

Open

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UK election called by ...?

The field is sharply concentrated on two dates, but Nigel Farage's resignation as MP has injected uncertainty, making the upcoming Clacton by-election a potential trigger for an earlier election call.

June 30, 202740¢

2 outcomes

▲ 0pts11mo

Smarkets

Open

Next Conservative Leader - After Kemi Badenoch

The field is moderately concentrated with the top three summing 53%, but the 31-candidate list and 14 names above 5% signal a fragmented race where no single figure has consolidated support; the biggest recent shift is Ben Houchen's rise to 26%, likely boosted by his local-government base after Badenoch's North Yorkshire campaign launch (Darlington & Stockton Times, Jul 3) gave him a platform to appear as a competent regional leader.

Gavin Williamson26¢

31 outcomes

£507 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner

UBJP71¢

51 outcomes

$34K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Brazil 2026 election have the same outcome as the US 2024 election?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro78¢

13 outcomes

$25.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Futuur

Open

Winner of Clacton’s by-election

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

▲ 0pts17d

Smarkets

Open

Exit Date 2026 — Shabana Mahmood 2026 Exit Date

Shabana Mahmood's survival as Home Secretary depends on whether Keir Starmer can weather a mounting leadership crisis, with the odds reflecting the possibility that a broader government collapse triggers her exit before any individual policy failure.

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

£373 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$245K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva, 5-10%34¢

11 outcomes

$8.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Canada's stock market outperform the US's during Trump's 2nd term?

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ415 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Futuur

Open

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo75¢

4 outcomes

▲ 0pts1y

Smarkets

Open

Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: Most seats

The race is a four-way deadlock, with all major parties within striking distance, reflecting the fragmented post-2022 landscape. The biggest recent shift was the May 7, 2026, Belfast Telegraph analysis that detailed seats at risk and potential gains, which likely narrowed the odds by highlighting the competitiveness of the race.

Alliance100¢

4 outcomes

£253 Vol▲ 0pts9mo

Polymarket

Open

Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$55.1K Vol▼ 0pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Which party will win the next UK general election?

Labour party35¢

8 outcomes

$241K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the next president of France be the result of the 2027 planned elections?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts9mo

Smarkets

Open

Next General Election - Prime Minister At Poll Opening - Andy Burnham

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

£127 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$125K Vol▼ 2pts19d

Kalshi

Open

Will the UK announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$54.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Zack Polanski is leader of the Green Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Green?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Smarkets

Open

UK Parliamentary By-Elections in 2026 — Will there be Over 5.5 By-Elections in 2026?

Over 5.583¢

2 outcomes

£60 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva 5-10%36¢

11 outcomes

$296K Vol▲ 1pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump visit Japan before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$35.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will BJP lost in 2029 India Parliamentary Election?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ25 Vol▲ 0pts3y