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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 6 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3857 US elections 2735 Foreign politics 418 Political Leader Tenure 347 Future US Presidents 223 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 74 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

415 markets · page 6 of 18

Kalshi

Open

Félix Tshisekedi

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…45678…18Next ›

Next Croat President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Darijana Filipović61¢

30 outcomes

$17.3K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Ron DeSantis ever be elected President?

DeSantis is actively positioning for a 2028 run but remains a long shot (7%) because he faces a hostile MAGA base after feuding with Trump and lacks a clear national path after his 2024 primary loss.

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ4.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$540 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next President of New Caledonia

Milakulo Tukumuli97¢

39 outcomes

$54.5K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance be the first millennial president of the United States ?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ609 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Javier Milei leave President of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next President of the National Rally in 2026?

Jordan Bardella96¢

35 outcomes

$7.5K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an openly gay man become president of the United States before a woman becomes president?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ3.8K Vol▲ 0pts16y

Kalshi

Open

Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$5.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the next president of France be the result of the 2027 planned elections?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts9mo

Kalshi

Open

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

The market heavily discounts Lula leaving office early, but the real story is that the 8% Yes price reflects residual tail risk from health, legal, or political upheaval rather than any imminent trigger, given no recent headlines about resignation or removal.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$45K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Judit Polgár become the next President of Hungary?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Nayib Bukele leave President of El Salvador before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Marco Rubio becomes president of Cuba before 2029

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$19.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance be president of the United States at any point before the end of January 2029?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Rodrigo Paz Pereira

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$4.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Luis Marques Mendes elected president of Portugal?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ279 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Denis Sassou Nguesso

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Marco Rubio ever be President of the United States?

Yes18¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$110K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Thomas Massie ever become the President of the USA?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ8.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$660 Vol▲ 0pts1y