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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 6 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3857 US elections 2735 Foreign politics 418 Political Leader Tenure 347 Future US Presidents 223 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 74 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

233 markets · page 6 of 10

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Mark Cuban run for president before the Dallas Mavericks win the NBA Championship again?

Yes21¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

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Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? — Mark Kelly

Mark Kelly's recent bipartisan AI bill and community-focused events suggest he is building a national profile, but he has not yet announced a campaign, leaving the 66% odds reliant on speculation rather than a formal declaration.

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

$19K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

John Fetterman

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$6.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Mitch Landrieu

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

$638 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Mr. Beast run for president before the end of 2070?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ236 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Kim Kardashian

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$6.5K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Mikie Sherrill

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$902 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Bryan Johnson run for President of the USA in the 21st century?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ275 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Yes3¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$2.7K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Pete Buttigieg

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

$8.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Taylor Swift run for president of the United States by EOY 2040?

The market sees a Taylor Swift presidential run as extremely unlikely, but the real story is that her political influence is already massive and could shift if the political landscape changes dramatically.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Polymarket

Open

Zohran Mamdani

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$34.9K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? — Roy Cooper

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$8.9K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Jamie Dimon run for president of the United States by 2040?

Dimon's categorical denial (inkl, Jul 13) is the dominant force keeping the Yes odds low, but the market still prices a 29% chance that he reverses course before 2040, reflecting his continued public engagement on policy and the long time horizon.

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ933 Vol▲ 0pts14y

Polymarket

Open

Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027?

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$7.7K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? — Ro Khanna

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

$24.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027?

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$2.9K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tucker Carlson ever run for president?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ383 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Raphael Warnock

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

$4.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Michelle Obama

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$14.2K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]

Gavin Newsom91¢

28 outcomes

Ɱ17.1K Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Kalshi

Open

Stephen A. Smith

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$31.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Bernie Sanders

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$3.2K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for president before Election Day 2028?

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ273 Vol▲ 0pts2y