Politics prediction markets
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
AllUS governance 3786US elections 2657Foreign politics 400Political Leader Tenure 336Future US Presidents 215US Political Timelines 201Leader Tenure Predictions 113US Political Future 105Presidential Candidacy 71US Political Milestones ✨ 30Person of the Year Awards 12Sports & Political Leadership 10
157 markets · page 7 of 7
Polymarket
Open
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
Despite a Russian summer offensive focused on Donetsk, the market prices a near-certain No (96%) because the resolution requires simultaneous control of all municipalities, a bar Russia has never reached in any oblast, and senior NATO officials doubt even a 2027 timeline.
Yes4¢
No96¢
Yes ≈ 4% chance
$211K Vol5mo