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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 7 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3848 US elections 2721 Foreign politics 415 Political Leader Tenure 344 Future US Presidents 218 US Political Timelines 202 Leader Tenure Predictions 116 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 74 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

6,101 markets · page 7 of 255

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Senate race in North Carolina?

Yes89¢

No11¢

Yes ≈ 89% chance

Ɱ5.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…56789…255Next ›

Will Trump say "Uranium" before Jul 27, 2026?

Despite the Saudi nuclear deal dominating headlines, Trump's July 23 statements explicitly discussed 'enrichment' and 'normalization' without uttering 'uranium,' and with only ~1.5 days left in the market, traders see a 5% chance he says the word before the deadline.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$38.5K Vol▼ 1pts1d

Polymarket

Open

Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?

Yes4¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$115K Vol▲ 3pts4d

Futuur

Open

Late night shows cancelled in 2026

The field is moderately concentrated with the top four candidates summing to 37%, but the recent cancellation of Stephen Colbert's 'Late Show' (AOL.com, Jul 9) has reshuffled the landscape, making the race more fluid as viewers migrate and ratings shift.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon13¢

4 outcomes

$11 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

2028 Republican nominee?

Trump's continued influence, demonstrated by his intercession in a House race and disaster aid allocation (NYT, ABC News, Jul 3), keeps his former running mate JD Vance as the clear front-runner, but the field remains fragmented with many candidates below 5%, suggesting the race is far from settled.

JD Vance42¢

19 outcomes

Ɱ952K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? — Before Aug 8, 2026

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

$83.6K Vol▼ 6pts13d

Polymarket

Open

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$356K Vol▼ 6pts20d

Futuur

Open

Michigan's Senate election winner

The Michigan Senate race is unusually fluid because the Democratic primary is a genuine toss-up between Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed after state Senator Mallory McMorrow's departure, yet the general-election odds heavily favor the Democratic nominee, reflecting a structural advantage in a state that has trended blue in presidential years.

Democratic Party76¢

2 outcomes

$1 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ862 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Karoline / Leavitt

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$30.5K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Polymarket

Open

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?

Yes35¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

$37.5K Vol▼ 7pts11mo

Futuur

Open

Arizona Governor election winner

The field is heavily concentrated on the Democratic Party (77%) despite the Republican primary still being contested; the single biggest recent shift is the surge of conservative Andy Biggs to 60% in the GOP primary, which paradoxically may be boosting Democratic odds by making the general election more winnable for them.

Democratic Party77¢

2 outcomes

$1 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ144 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

South Carolina Senate winner?

Republican party87¢

2 outcomes

$586K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$637K Vol▼ 0pts5d

Futuur

Open

What will be Donald Trump's net approval on December 31, 2026?

The field is highly concentrated on net approval between -20 and -10.1 points (72% combined), but a split among recent polls—one showing a multi-month high (Newsweek, Jul 8) and another showing record lows (Newsweek, Jul 9)—suggests the market is pricing in dueling narratives rather than a clear trend. The biggest recent shift is the release of a July 9 poll showing 60% of Americans believe Trump uses the office for personal gain, which may be anchoring the 'Below -20' outcome at 13%.

Between -20 and -15.1 percentage points50¢

5 outcomes

$0 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Jul 2026?

098¢

5 outcomes

$532K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ11.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

FL-22 Republican Primary Winner

Michael Carbonara79¢

13 outcomes

$23.6K Vol▼ 4pts23d

Futuur

Open

Will Section 230 of the CDA (Communications Decency Act) be _____ in 2026?

The field remains highly diffuse despite decades of reform pressure, with no single proposal above 12%, and the only notable shift is a slight decline in the 'revoked' option since mid-2025, possibly reflecting bipartisan fatigue with outright repeal.

Revised or replaced with new legislation12¢

2 outcomes

$0 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

With only six days until the Aug 1 deadline, the odds of a proof-of-citizenship voting law passing are nearly zero, reflecting both the legislative calendar and recent judicial blocks.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$598K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump run in the 2028 United States presidential election?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ12.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$2M Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Rigged Election / Stolen Election

The market sees Trump's phrase as nearly certain because he has used 'rigged' over 100 times in six months and the seven-day resolution window is almost over, making any avoidance unlikely given his recent doubling down.

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$48.1K Vol▲ 0pts1d