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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 9 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3809 US elections 2676 Foreign politics 402 Political Leader Tenure 338 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

230 markets · page 9 of 10

Polymarket

Open

Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$14.2K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$9.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$7.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? — Rand Paul

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$10.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?

Yes2¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$9.9K Vol5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$7.9K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$4.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 2027?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$25.9K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? — Spencer Pratt

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$437 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Mike Pence announce a presidential run before 2027?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$15.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? — Ted Cruz

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

$20K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

Other50¢

12 outcomes

$7.9K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? — Tulsi Gabbard

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$6.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? — Thomas Massie

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

$12.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Vivek Ramaswamy

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$11.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$426 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027? — Before Jul 1, 2027

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$465 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027? — Before Oct 1, 2027

AOC is actively fueling 2028 speculation with a deliberate Obama-style rebrand and explicit refusal to rule out a run, but the market still sees a majority chance she holds off—likely because a House member launching a presidential campaign remains historically rare.

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

$841 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

Rahm Emanuel77¢

33 outcomes

$6.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Ron DeSantis announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Despite a Florida-focused report that DeSantis is 'gearing up' for a 2028 run (Floridian Press, May 12), the market gives only a 9% chance he announces before Jan 1, 2027, reflecting traders' view that his failed 2024 primary bid (BBC, Jan 22, 2024) has severely diminished his standing and that early announcements are rare.

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$311 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?

Joe Manchin has repeatedly flirted with a presidential run but declined in 2024; his age and lack of a party base make a 2028 bid unlikely, but his independent streak and open field keep the door slightly ajar.

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$660 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027? — Before Apr 1, 2027

Newsom's 47% Yes odds reflect a race that is still wide open, with his national profile rising from legal scrutiny and frequent media mentions, but no formal campaign infrastructure yet and unresolved distractions like a DOJ investigation.

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

$960 Vol▲ 0pts8mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Newsom faces a federal investigation and a crowded Democratic field, keeping his 2028 presidential announcement odds low despite ongoing national attention.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$2.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027? — Before Jul 1, 2027

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

$19 Vol▲ 0pts11mo