Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
285 markets · page 2 of 12
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — 55%+
Yes39¢
No62¢
Yes ≈ 39% chance
$3.5K Vol 2pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? — 1500+
Yes30¢
No70¢
Yes ≈ 30% chance
$9.5K Vol 2pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+
Yes22¢
No79¢
Yes ≈ 22% chance
$2.1K Vol 10pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Waymo launch in Portland, OR by December 31 2026?
Yes15¢
No85¢
Yes ≈ 15% chance
$2.2K Vol 16pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — 45%+
Yes67¢
No34¢
Yes ≈ 67% chance
$4.1K Vol 2pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+
Yes14¢
No87¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
$1.9K Vol 1pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+
Yes45¢
No55¢
Yes ≈ 45% chance
$2.7K Vol 28pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
Yes10¢
No91¢
Yes ≈ 10% chance
$188K Vol2mo
Polymarket
Open
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Yes9¢
No92¢
Yes ≈ 9% chance
$8.2K Vol 2pts2mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?
Yes3¢
No97¢
Yes ≈ 3% chance
$87K Vol 0pts5d
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+
Yes19¢
No81¢
Yes ≈ 19% chance
$3.2K Vol 7pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? — Phone
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$54.8K Vol 1pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? — ↑ 1530
Yes37¢
No63¢
Yes ≈ 37% chance
$1.1K Vol 4pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
Yes46¢
No54¢
Yes ≈ 46% chance
$14.9K Vol 1pts2mo
Polymarket
Open
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Yes95¢
No5¢
Yes ≈ 95% chance
$2K Vol 2pts8mo
Polymarket
Open
Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
Yes78¢
No22¢
Yes ≈ 78% chance
$9K Vol 4pts5d