Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
4,397 markets · page 28 of 184
Kalshi
Open
How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? — Above 1000000 in a single quarter
Yes8¢
No92¢
Yes ≈ 8% chance
$437 Vol8mo
Polymarket
Open
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Yes11¢
No90¢
Yes ≈ 11% chance
$13.4K Vol 1pts2mo
Manifold· Play
Open
Will the world's first general artificial intelligence come from OpenAI? [M$300 liquidity subsidy]
Yes43¢
No57¢
Yes ≈ 43% chance
Ɱ1.2K Vol—
Polymarket
Open
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
Yes16¢
No84¢
Yes ≈ 16% chance
$4.2K Vol5mo
Kalshi
Open
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 12
Yes96¢
No4¢
Yes ≈ 96% chance
$83 Vol11d
Manifold· Play
Open
Will Tesla release a petrol/gasoline car before the end of 2028?
Yes4¢
No96¢
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Ɱ816 Vol2y
Polymarket
Open
Next Kimi K model released by September 30, 2026?
Yes42¢
No59¢
Yes ≈ 42% chance
$963 Vol2mo
Kalshi
Open
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems? — Before November
Yes59¢
No41¢
Yes ≈ 59% chance
$3.9K Vol3mo
Manifold· Play
Open
Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?
Yes5¢
No95¢
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Ɱ9.8K Vol1mo
Polymarket
Open
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of July?
OpenAI92¢
27 outcomes
$8.1K Vol 0pts5d
Kalshi
Open
Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes53¢
No47¢
Yes ≈ 53% chance
$22.4K Vol5mo
Manifold· Play
Open
Will "Learnings from AI safety course so far" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Ɱ50 Vol6mo
Polymarket
Open
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Yes13¢
No88¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
$8.2K Vol5mo
Kalshi
Open
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027
Yes87¢
No13¢
Yes ≈ 87% chance
$22.3K Vol5mo
Manifold· Play
Open
Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028?
Yes25¢
No75¢
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Ɱ3.5K Vol2y
Polymarket
Open
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?
Yes13¢
No87¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
$10.9K Vol 2pts5mo
Kalshi
Open
Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida this year? — Before 2027
Yes40¢
No60¢
Yes ≈ 40% chance
$12.6K Vol5mo
Manifold· Play
Open
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2040?
Yes10¢
No90¢
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Ɱ217 Vol13y
Kalshi
Open
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 150
Yes77¢
No23¢
Yes ≈ 77% chance
$5.3K Vol5mo
Manifold· Play
Open
Will there be an expert-player-beating AI in EU4 by 2026?
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Ɱ308 Vol1y
Polymarket🔭 2 venues
Open
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?
Yes25¢
No76¢
Yes ≈ 25% chance
$14.1K Vol1y
Manifold· Play
Open
Will "My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Yes13¢
No87¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Ɱ50 Vol6mo