Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
235 markets · page 3 of 10
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?
Despite 78% odds suggesting near-certain release by July 31, the market is pricing in a fragile timeline: Google has officially delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro twice, with the latest target of July 17 backed by an architectural rebuild—making a miss by the end of the month a real, not just theoretical, risk.
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)
The field is extremely concentrated, with Anthropic at 95% and the top three summing to 99%, but the only recent headline relevant to AI model rankings is OpenAI's GPT-5.6 announcement on July 9, which has not shifted odds away from Anthropic, suggesting traders see no near-term challenger to Anthropic's current lead.
26 outcomes
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? — Phone
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? — ↑ 1530
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Which company has the best AI Agent end of July?
The field is extremely concentrated on Anthropic at 96%, with no other candidate above 50%, and the single biggest recent shift is the lack of any movement for competitors, as no headline since early July shows a rival gaining ground on the Agent Arena leaderboard.
29 outcomes
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? — 45%+
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
The field is moderately concentrated with the top three candidates summing to 63%, but the single biggest recent shift is the consolidation of expectation around a three-week window from July 17 to July 30, driven by multiple reports that Gemini 3.5 Pro originally targeted late June—then slipped to July, and now appears to have a final architecturally-rebuilt launch date of July 17 (Tech Times, 2026-07-08).
32 outcomes
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? — Tablet
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31? — #10
Yes ≈ 97% chance
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+
Yes ≈ 72% chance
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
The market's 28% Yes reflects deep skepticism that any AI model will achieve a 1520 Arena Score by September 2026, likely because current top scores are far below that threshold and the pace of improvement, as indicated by the Stanford report on China's catch-up, does not suggest a sudden leap.
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+
Yes ≈ 44% chance