Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
285 markets · page 3 of 12
Polymarket
Open
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
255¢
6 outcomes
$3.2M Vol 0pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Yes23¢
No77¢
Yes ≈ 23% chance
$8K Vol 0pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-665¢
8 outcomes
$489K Vol 1pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?
Shadowrocket92¢
14 outcomes
$1.1K Vol 3pts5d
Polymarket
Open
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? — Tablet
Yes11¢
No89¢
Yes ≈ 11% chance
$13.5K Vol 1pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31? — #10
Yes97¢
No3¢
Yes ≈ 97% chance
$15.2K Vol 0pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Yes11¢
No90¢
Yes ≈ 11% chance
$90.5K Vol 0pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+
Yes72¢
No28¢
Yes ≈ 72% chance
$658 Vol 0pts5mo
Polymarket⚡ Moving fast
Open
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑10k
Yes7¢
No93¢
Yes ≈ 7% chance
$6.5M Vol 1pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+
Yes12¢
No89¢
Yes ≈ 12% chance
$971 Vol 4pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Yes17¢
No84¢
Yes ≈ 17% chance
$22.8K Vol 4pts2mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
Yes16¢
No84¢
Yes ≈ 16% chance
$47.8K Vol 1pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+
Yes44¢
No56¢
Yes ≈ 44% chance
$1.4K Vol 20pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — 45%+
Yes59¢
No42¢
Yes ≈ 59% chance
$1.2K Vol 1pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Yes35¢
No65¢
Yes ≈ 35% chance
$48.6K Vol 1pts5mo
Polymarket
Open
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 27, 2026?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$1.3K Vol 5pts1d