Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

What's driving it

• • The 100% odds for China, Switzerland, Turkey, France, and UK imply traders expect a multi-stop tour covering both major powers and neutral venues, likely tied to announced summits or bilateral meetings (no clear catalyst recently).
• • The 97% No on Taiwan reflects strong consensus that Trump will avoid a visit that could escalate tensions with China, consistent with his past reluctance to challenge Beijing directly.
• • The 83% No on Israel suggests traders see a lower likelihood of a visit, possibly due to strained relations or scheduling conflicts, though no specific headline explains this move.

What to watch

• • Release of Trump's official 2026 travel itinerary (likely direction: confirms or denies specific countries, moving odds toward 0 or 100).
• • Announcement of a major summit (e.g., G7, UN General Assembly) in a country not currently at 100% (likely direction: increases odds for that host country).
• • A diplomatic incident or policy shift involving Taiwan, Italy, or Israel (likely direction: further reduces already low odds for those countries).