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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 10 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3874 US elections 2756 Foreign politics 424 Political Leader Tenure 353 Future US Presidents 225 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 75 Person of the Year Awards 13 Sports & Political Leadership 10

10,949 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 10 of 417

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$484K Vol▲ 1pts5d

Futuur

Open

‹ Prev1…89101112…417Next ›

Will the CDC weaken vaccine recommendation against _____ for children and adolescents in 2026?

The field is moderately open: the top two candidates (MMR at 23%, Polio at 21%) together hold only 44%, and no other option exceeds 5%, meaning a late surge by a different vaccine or a reversal is plausible. The single biggest recent shift was the January 2026 overhaul of the childhood vaccine schedule by HHS Secretary RFK Jr., which downgraded advice for multiple shots and triggered lawsuits (Politico, Jan 5; CNN, Jan 14).

MMR23¢

2 outcomes

$44 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump say "Melania" before Jul 27, 2026?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$40.1K Vol▲ 0pts1d

InsightX

Open

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

The field is highly concentrated on two near-term dates, July 31 and July 24, which together capture 69% of the probability, but the recent 2-point drop in the leading Yes probability suggests traders are reacting to persistent ceasefire cracks and a lack of diplomatic progress, not a clear path to a two-week pause.

July 3141¢

2 outcomes

$3.6M Vol▲ 4pts1mo

Smarkets

Open

Exit Date 2026 — Shabana Mahmood 2026 Exit Date

Shabana Mahmood's survival as Home Secretary depends on whether Keir Starmer can weather a mounting leadership crisis, with the odds reflecting the possibility that a broader government collapse triggers her exit before any individual policy failure.

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

£373 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

$103K Vol▲ 10pts2d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?

The field is extremely concentrated in deep-red states where Republican incumbents or heirs-apparent face no serious general-election threat, but the recent shift is a slight narrowing in Mississippi and Tennessee as national Democrats signal they will contest only a handful of seats, leaving the rest uncontested.

Mississippi97¢

35 outcomes

Ɱ140K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Futuur

Open

Iran announces withdrawal from US–Iran MOU negotiations by...?

August 1526¢

2 outcomes

$42 Vol▲ 0pts17d

Kalshi

Open

How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (7/20-7/26)

The field is heavily concentrated on 5 and 6 days (75% combined), but the provided headlines, all from weeks prior, offer no direct insight into this specific week's photography count, making the odds appear driven by historical patterns rather than recent news.

665¢

4 outcomes

$79.9K Vol▼ 5pts1d

InsightX

Open

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

The field is extremely concentrated on a single outcome (December 31, 2026 at 9%) with no other candidate above 5%, reflecting a market that sees normalization as possible but not imminent; the biggest recent shift was the collapse of the June 30, 2026 candidate from 0% to effectively zero after its deadline passed, leaving only the year-end target as a live option.

December 31, 20269¢

2 outcomes

$3.5M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

Governor Elections — Nevada Governor Election Winner

The Democratic front-runner holds a slight advantage, but the race remains competitive because Republican Joe Lombardo's campaign has already spent heavily on advertising, suggesting an uphill battle to hold the seat (The Nevada Independent, Jul 8).

Democrat52¢

2 outcomes

£353 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing a near-certain Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by year-end, but the resolution hinges on a specific map icon—not general control—and recent Russian claims of capture have been contradicted by the very map that will settle the market.

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

$1.4M Vol▲ 4pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be the Republican nominee for Vice President in 2028?

Other49¢

15 outcomes

Ɱ15.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Futuur

Open

Measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

3,000 or more83¢

4 outcomes

$36 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

InsightX

Open

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

The market is extremely concentrated on a single outcome (recapture by December 31) at low probability, reflecting skepticism despite recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Crimea that have disrupted infrastructure and prompted a state of emergency (Crypto Briefing, Jul 21).

December 3110¢

2 outcomes

$3.5M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Michael Carbonara81¢

15 outcomes

$85.9K Vol▲ 2pts1y

Smarkets

Open

Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: Most seats

The race is a four-way deadlock, with all major parties within striking distance, reflecting the fragmented post-2022 landscape. The biggest recent shift was the May 7, 2026, Belfast Telegraph analysis that detailed seats at risk and potential gains, which likely narrowed the odds by highlighting the competitiveness of the race.

Alliance100¢

4 outcomes

£253 Vol▲ 0pts9mo

Polymarket

Open

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

The market sees McConnell finishing his term as the base case, but a recent health update and unusual silence from his office have injected enough doubt to keep the 'Yes' side at a meaningful 38%, despite a sharp 8-point drop in the last day.

Yes38¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

$854K Vol▼ 7pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

The current odds reflect the market's struggle to weigh credible security threats and speculations about Trump's age and health against the absence of concrete medical evidence, with headlines providing more noise than clarity.

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ553K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Futuur

Open

Todd Blanche confirmed as US Attorney General by...?

August 3057¢

2 outcomes

$30 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

InsightX

Open

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

The field is effectively a two-party contest with no third-party threat, but the single biggest recent shift is the Democratic Party's emergency replacement of scandal-plagued Graham Platner with Troy Jackson in the must-win Maine Senate race, a move that could stabilize their odds after a debacle (The Washington Post, Jul 25).

Republican Party56¢

2 outcomes

$3.3M Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

MO-01 Democratic nominee?

The field is a pure two-way contest between Cori Bush and Wesley Bell, with no other candidate above 5%, and the single biggest recent shift is the absence of any movement—the odds have been static for weeks, as the provided headlines all concern Maine's Senate race, not Missouri's 1st District.

Cori Bush57¢

2 outcomes

$359K Vol▼ 1pts3mo

Smarkets

Open

Next General Election - Prime Minister At Poll Opening - Andy Burnham

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

£131 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

NATO-Russia clash odds have climbed seven points in a week to 25%, but with no clear catalyst in the provided data, the move likely reflects general geopolitical uncertainty rather than any specific trigger.

Yes30¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$807K Vol▲ 7pts5mo