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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 11 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3874 US elections 2756 Foreign politics 424 Political Leader Tenure 353 Future US Presidents 225 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 75 Person of the Year Awards 13 Sports & Political Leadership 10

10,949 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 11 of 417

Manifold· Play

Open

Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from?

Labour43¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ13.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

InsightX

Open

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

‹ Prev1…910111213…417Next ›

The field is extremely fragmented and low-probability, with no candidate above 5%, reflecting a race that has not yet crystallized around any front-runner; the biggest recent shift is the absence of any movement despite a flurry of headlines about Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's high-profile diplomatic engagements with India, suggesting the market sees these events as irrelevant to his re-election chances.

Jimmie Åkesson3¢

2 outcomes

$3.3M Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Futuur

Open

Winner of Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary

The field is highly concentrated, with Penny Flanagan at 79% and Angie Craig at 19%, leaving only 2% for others, and the biggest recent shift is Flanagan's surge following the ICE backlash that has energized the progressive base, as reported in The Washington Post on June 8.

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

$27 Vol▲ 0pts15d

Kalshi

Open

Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

The field is a binary contest between Republicans and Democrats, but the biggest recent shift is the Maine Democratic nomination turmoil, where the party replaced a scandal-plagued candidate with a former Republican logger, potentially shoring up a must-win seat (Washington Post, Jul 25).

Republican Party56¢

2 outcomes

$6.1M Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Smarkets

Open

State Senate Elections — Maine Senate Election Winner

The field is a two-way race between Democrat Troy Jackson and the Republican nominee, but the sudden replacement of the original Democratic candidate after an 'implosion' (Fox News, Jul 25) injects uncertainty despite the Democrat's current lead.

Democrat67¢

2 outcomes

£115 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Bitcoin hits $1m

The market is perfectly split because Bitcoin's path to $1M requires an unprecedented ~15x rally from its current $65K level before GTA VI's release, yet the lack of a concrete GTA VI release date means the clock could run out or extend indefinitely, creating a symmetric bet on two extreme unknowns.

Yes50¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 50% chance

$4.7M Vol5d

InsightX

Open

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

The market heavily discounts a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, but recent reports of Pentagon planning and political labeling of Cuba as a 'major subversive threat' show a significant escalation in rhetoric and preparation, making the low odds a stark contrast to the discourse.

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$3.2M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump go to the hospital this month?

The market heavily discounts a Trump hospitalization this month, but the sparse public health data and his past secrecy around medical details leave a non-trivial tail risk that a sudden event could force a hospital visit.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ577 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Futuur

Open

Elected Governor of Alagoas in 2026

The field is extremely concentrated between two heavyweights — JHC and Renan Filho — with a combined 105% probability, leaving almost no room for others; the biggest recent shift is the emergence of an anti-system former Supreme Court justice (Valor International, May 19), which could fragment the protest vote but has not yet dented the top two.

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

$21 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

The market sees near-zero chance of a crypto market structure bill becoming law by September 1, 2026, despite recent bipartisan talks and White House agreement on ethics provisions, because the CLARITY Act's passage odds have hit a historic low and a Senate ethics dispute threatens progress.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$411K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Smarkets

Open

Trump Administration Exit Dates — Lori Chavez-DeRemer Exit Date - 2026

The market expects Chavez-DeRemer to depart by year-end 2026 largely because she has already resigned amid scandal, but the high Yes price (81%) reflects the unusual scenario that her resignation is effective immediately and yet a permanent replacement nomination was made only months later, creating ambiguity about her actual exit date.

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

£111 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Yes67¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

$254K Vol▲ 14pts20d

InsightX

Open

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

The field is extremely concentrated on a single outcome (December 31 at 25%), with all other candidates below 5%, indicating traders see a possible but not probable clash by year-end, and the biggest recent shift is the emergence of December 31 as the leader following Russia's largest ballistic missile wave since 2022 (Crypto Briefing, Jul 19).

December 3128¢

2 outcomes

$3.2M Vol▲ 5pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ52.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Guam Governor winner?

Josh Tenorio37¢

5 outcomes

$63.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Futuur

Open

Winner of the Michigan Democratic Senate primary

El-Sayed is the clear frontrunner at 79% after securing a key endorsement from Smith, but Governor Whitmer's endorsement of a rival and reported internal party divisions keep the race competitive and the upset possibility alive.

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

$19 Vol▲ 0pts8d

Smarkets

Open

Governor Elections — Georgia Governor Election Winner

The field is a pure two-way race between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with no third-party or independent candidate above 2% — the single biggest recent shift was the Republican primary runoff on June 16-17, where Trump-endorsed candidate lost to state senator Jackson, fracturing the GOP base and tightening the general election odds (NYT, Jul 6).

Democrat57¢

2 outcomes

£107 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Despite Ukraine's July 7 offer of an unconditional ceasefire and secret German-Russian talks in Baku, the odds have dropped sharply, reflecting the market's view that Russia's June 24 refusal to agree to a ceasefire for the sake of talks and the failure of the May US-brokered ceasefire outweigh any diplomatic signals.

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$804K Vol▼ 4pts3mo

InsightX

Open

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Despite rising tensions and frequent military drills, the low odds (7%) reflect market confidence that both sides will avoid direct military confrontation before 2027, as escalation remains contained to peripheral incidents and rhetoric.

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$3.1M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Brazil Presidential Election Winner

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva70¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ15.3K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Trump's approval rating on Jul 31, 2026?

40.8 to 41.030¢

8 outcomes

$56.3K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Futuur

Open

How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

The field is moderately concentrated, with the 4–6 range holding a 35% plurality, but the 20% share for both the 3-or-less and 7–9 ranges shows significant uncertainty about the pace of departures; the biggest recent shift is the rise of the 4–6 bucket, likely driven by a series of ethics and financial-tie scandals (ProPublica, Mar 5) that increase pressure on officials to resign or be fired.

4 to 635¢

5 outcomes

$13 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

Trump Administration Exit Dates — Kristi Noem Exit Date - 2026

Noem's exit odds are elevated by a fresh scandal involving erased messages and a pattern of DHS turnover, but the White House's need for border stability may argue against another departure.

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

£93 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

$54K Vol▲ 9pts3d