Politics prediction markets
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
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723 markets · page 11 of 31
Kalshi
Open
Reform UK, ≥5%
The market strongly expects Reform UK to win by over 5% in the Clacton by-election, but recent coverage of a potential 'triple embarrassment' from satirical candidate Count Binface and Nigel Farage's resignation suggests the margin could be tighter than the 84% probability implies.
Yes95¢
No5¢
Yes ≈ 95% chance
$7.8K Vol 0pts