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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 15 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3965 US elections 2858 Foreign politics 458 Political Leader Tenure 364 Future US Presidents 233 US Political Timelines 206 Leader Tenure Predictions 121 US Political Future 108 Presidential Candidacy 78 Person of the Year Awards 15 Sports & Political Leadership 10

6,216 markets · page 15 of 259

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump ever publicly endorse another presidential candidate?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ206 Vol▲ 0pts19y

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…1314151617…259Next ›

Make Iran Great Again

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$15.1K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Polymarket

Open

TX-37 House Election Winner

Democratic Party96¢

8 outcomes

$30.2K Vol▼ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump be physically present in the White House at any point on January 21st 2029?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Autopen / Auto Pen

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$10.5K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Polymarket

Open

MD-01 House Election Winner

Republican Party84¢

8 outcomes

$29.8K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump post on Truth Social between 2:00 AM and 2:59 AM ET this week? — 2-3 AM

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$1.6K Vol▲ 2pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will win the 2026 Senate Election in Texas?

The field is a pure two-way race between Paxton and Talarico, with all other major candidates at 0% — unprecedented consolidation that makes the race look more like a binary referendum on Paxton than a typical open-seat free-for-all.

Ken Paxton57¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ77.9K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

WV-02 House Election Winner

Republican Party95¢

8 outcomes

$77K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump say "Epstein" before Aug 1, 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$8.2K Vol▲ 1pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

Republicans win at least one of ME/MN/NC Senate seats in 2026?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$39.5K Vol▼ 1pts11mo

Kalshi

Open

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by May 31, 2027? — Before June 2027

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$9.1K Vol▲ 0pts10mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala won?(excluding maine)

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ4.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks? — Hell 7+ times

Yes70¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

$2.8K Vol▲ 10pts1d

Kalshi

Open

Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?

The market is pricing a 75% chance that Democrats hold both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterms, but this is a double-barreled bet requiring them to defy historical midterm losses for the president's party in the House while also flipping several Senate seats — a much tougher combo than the headline odds suggest.

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

$310K Vol▼ 1pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Trump has fired two women Cabinet members in the last month. Will the next fired Cabinet member be a female or male?

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ466 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$2.6K Vol▲ 9pts20d

Kalshi

Open

Will President Trump resign before his term is up? — Before his term ends

The market heavily favors Trump staying in office, but the recent surge in impeachment speculation on Polymarket suggests traders see a non-resignation removal as more likely than a voluntary exit, leaving the resignation odds low despite elevated political risk.

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$300K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Democrats win at least one of Ohio/Iowa/Alaska Senate seats?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ349 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? — December 31, 2026

Despite low market odds (12%), the recent +2pt shift suggests growing external pressure on Ukraine from Western allies, even as Kyiv publicly rejects concessions. The key dynamic is whether sustained diplomatic pressure from key players like Germany and the US can overcome Ukraine's stated position before the 2027 deadline.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$677K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Alaska Senate winner?

The Alaska Senate race has narrowed to a two-party contest where the Democratic nominee leads the Republican incumbent, a notable shift from the state's recent red lean, driven by a July 24 NYT poll showing Democratic gains.

Democratic party55¢

2 outcomes

$462K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Who going to be the Republican 2028 candidate?

Other56¢

3 outcomes

Ɱ19.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31?

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$56.6K Vol5mo