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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 18 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 2853 US elections 1716 President ✨ 701 Foreign politics 238 Future US Presidents 211 US Political Timelines 111 Presidential Candidacy 64 Leader Tenure Predictions 60 Person of the Year Awards 11

4,507 markets · page 18 of 188

Manifold· Play

Open

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ33.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…1617181920…188Next ›

Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$43.8K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Trump gets ANOTHER uk state visit before the end of his second term

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ93 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will House Majority PAC report more than $95M in cash on hand at the end of Q3? — Above $95M

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

$897 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Donald Trump pardons Melissa Hortman's assassin

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ791 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Ken Paxton, 3+ pts

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

$42.8K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

USA lifts Cuba embargo before Trump leaves office?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ120 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will the number of White House Press Briefings in Jul 2026 be at least 3? — At least 3

Yes48¢

No52¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

$3.4K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

The market is heavily concentrated on 'Never' at 91%, reflecting a widespread belief that the political and procedural barriers to a Senate conviction remain insurmountable, despite recent headlines suggesting impeachment talk is growing among Democrats if they win the midterms.

Never.91¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ148K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before Jan 20, 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$126K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump resign prior to the end of his term?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ5.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

731¢

7 outcomes

$177K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

It is revealed that trump is actually dead for more than a week.

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ23.5K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Nov 3, 2026? — Before Nov 3, 2026

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$20K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump raise tariffs on any G7 country to more than 50%?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ98 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

$51.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ4.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

MT-01 House winner?

Aaron Flint64¢

2 outcomes

$15.9K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ4.1K Vol▲ 0pts9y

Kalshi

Open

Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Dec 1, 2026? — Before Dec 1, 2026

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

$37.3K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ415 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

Georgia Governor-Senate combo

Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff win59¢

4 outcomes

$18.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

If Trump wins in 2024, will a journalist be arrested for criticizing or otherwise reporting on him during his term?

Yes41¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ521 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? — Above 50

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$5.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo