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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 20 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 4790 US elections 3968 President ✨ 934 Foreign politics 790 Republican ✨ 541 Future US Presidents 270 US Political Timelines 219 Leader Tenure Predictions 151 Political ✨ 109 Presidential Candidacy 89 Person of the Year Awards 18

1,075 markets · page 20 of 45

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027?

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$803 Vol—

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…1819202122…45Next ›

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition for rehearing in Trump v. Barbara before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$21.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Israel recognize Palestine before 2027?

The market heavily discounts Israeli recognition of Palestine before 2027, reflecting both Netanyahu's firm rejection of a Palestinian state and the absence of any credible shift in official Israeli policy, despite international pressures and symbolic acts like the US Presbyterian Church's divestment.

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$199 Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Miguel Díaz-Canel

Despite the 83% No odds, the real story is that Díaz-Canel faces mounting external pressure from the EU and US, but internal party machinery shows no sign of a leadership change, making a departure before 2027 unlikely without a major crisis.

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$666K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Markwayne Mullin

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$401 Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump visit Montana before Jan 1, 2027?

The 45% odds reflect a genuine possibility but no concrete evidence; Montana's Republican infighting and Trump's loyalty tests create a plausible incentive for a visit, yet no recent headlines report any travel plans or invitations.

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

$232 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump pardon Andrew Tate before 2027?

Despite speculation about a Trump pardon for Andrew Tate, the White House has publicly stated it will not intervene in his extradition to the UK, and Tate remains in federal custody with serious charges, making a pardon highly unlikely.

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$70 Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

$15.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?

Germany has repeatedly and explicitly ruled out recognizing Palestine in the foreseeable future, making a 'Yes' by end of 2026 highly unlikely despite growing international and EU pressure.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$129K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will ICE announce a change to its official name before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$21.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?

Belgium's odds of recognizing Palestine before 2027 have dropped sharply after its prime minister advised 'wait and see' in January 2026, walking back a prior commitment to recognize at the UN General Assembly. The market now prices in that formal recognition is unlikely within the remaining six months.

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$77.8K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump visit Italy before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$10.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Elon register any party before 2027?

Yes4¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$6.8K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Israel and Syria normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$37K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Obama divorce before 2027?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$1.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027?

Escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, driven by the wider Iran conflict, create a hostile environment that makes a Trump visit unlikely before year-end, though his stated desire to expand the Abraham Accords provides a potential diplomatic motive.

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

$20.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$72.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump go on SNL during his second term? — Before 2029

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$18.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$17.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 20, 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$158K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$16K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

QR-code identification

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$1.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$147K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the UK announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

The market heavily discounts a snap election despite Farage's resignation, viewing it as a solo protest unlikely to force a national vote.

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$54.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo