Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3805 US elections 2674 President ✨ 754 Foreign politics 402 Republican ✨ 325 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Iran ✨ 126 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 Political ✨ 81 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12

89 markets · page 1 of 4

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

The market sees AI as nearly certain to rival abortion as a top-tier political issue by 2028, driven by accelerating regulatory battles and campaign messaging rather than any single recent headline.

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ2.5M Vol 0pts1y

Politics prediction markets

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms? — At least 1

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms? — At least 2

Will Jon Taffer run for any political office by the end of 2028?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms? — At least 3

Will a political group in El Salvador significant in the next 20 years be founded by inmates of the megaprison?

Will "A high integrity/epistemics political coalition?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms? — At least 4

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms? — At least 5

The President of the United States in February 2029 will be someone who never had held elected political office prior to 2023.

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 6 2026 midterms? — At least 6

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

How much does firearm control and 2A rhetoric switch political parties?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 7 2026 midterms? — At least 7

Some sort of political protester manages to deface the US constitution by mid 2037

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 8 2026 midterms? — At least 8

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Will a candidate who is not from a current major political party make it to a U.S. presidential election by 2052?

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2100?

Ezra Klein runs for, or is appointed, to a political office by end of 2028

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

Will the German political party AfD (right to far-right) get over 35% of the votes in the next election?