Politics prediction markets
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
AllUS governance 4790US elections 3968President ✨ 934Foreign politics 790Republican ✨ 541Future US Presidents 270US Political Timelines 219Leader Tenure Predictions 151Political ✨ 109Presidential Candidacy 89Person of the Year Awards 18
7,006 markets · page 21 of 292
Polymarket
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Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — 80+
Despite no formal blockade, a combination of Iranian strikes on vessels, announced transit fees, and a resulting pullback of shipping traffic has made a daily count of 80 ships highly improbable, with the market pricing in sustained disruption through July.
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$90.3K Vol5d