Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
1,075 markets · page 27 of 45
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
The market is pricing a low 27% chance for the Jewish American Security Act to become law by 2027, despite bipartisan support and recent introduction, reflecting skepticism about legislative throughput in a divided Congress and the bill's late start in the calendar.
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Despite growing bipartisan concern over China's dominance in critical minerals and multiple headlines highlighting supply risks, the odds remain low because no concrete legislative vehicle has emerged in Congress, and the 2026 midterm election year makes major new legislation a heavy lift.
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Despite unified calls from college sports leaders for a federal framework, the odds heavily favor 'No' because no comprehensive bill has advanced in Congress, and recent policy expansions have occurred without the athlete safeguards that a federal bill would include.
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance
The bill has cleared the House but stalled in the Senate, and a recent House rejection of a similar measure shows the political headwinds, keeping odds low despite bipartisan support.
Yes ≈ 21% chance
The House passed a bill in January 2026 to reverse showerhead regulations, but with no Senate action in six months, the market prices near-zero chance of enactment before 2027.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Despite bipartisan interest earlier, White House accusations against the Smithsonian (Jul 9-12) have sharply reduced the odds of a museum siting bill passing before 2027.
Yes ≈ 4% chance
The market is skeptical because Donald Brodie is not a high-profile figure and the alleged pardon-hunting by wealthy donors (Forbes, Nov 2025) does not appear to involve him; the 40% 'Yes' odds likely reflect general uncertainty around Trump's pardon patterns rather than any specific expectation for Brodie.
Yes ≈ 50% chance
Despite being a fundraising powerhouse, Josh Shapiro ranks 7th in a recent Democratic 2028 poll and has shown no national campaign activity, keeping the probability of a 2026 announcement extremely low.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The market heavily discounts a Section 181 extension because the current Congress is focused on broader tax reform and has shown no recent legislative action on this specific provision, while state-level incentives (WRAL, May 11) and foreign tax credits (upi.com, Feb 16) reduce the urgency for a federal fix.
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Despite being a two-term Democratic governor in a red state, Andy Beshear's current focus on state-level disaster recovery and Medicaid policy, with no national political activity, explains the low 11% odds of a presidential announcement.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Rahm Emanuel's recent campaign trail activity for a House candidate and his continued commentary on Israel suggest he is politically active, but there is no evidence he is laying groundwork for a presidential run, making the 12% odds a reflection of his name recognition rather than any concrete signal.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 76% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance